Making Accurate Predictions For The Industry & Being Three Months Ahead Of The Curve

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20/03/2009 – Making Accurate Predictions For The Industry & Being Three Months Ahead Of The Curve

For the life of me I can’t recall when I started looking up airline routes and schedules, but I was probably in the first or second grade.  My parents would make the 5-minute drive to JFK’s Terminal 2 for us to fly to Florida, or to pick up my Grandma. As an adult I am not sure when I started looking up load factors, reading specific flight statistics or why it is that I am often able to speculate certain trends in the commercial airline industry.

Yesterday one of my ‘long shot’ speculations once again proved to be correct.

The top of USA Today’s Today In The Sky column reported that Emirates would be removing the massive Airbus A380 from it’s New York (JFK) – Dubai (DXB) route on the 1st of June and that the aircraft would be repositioned on the Dubai (DXB) – Toronto (YYZ) route.

Normally when aircraft are swapped out no one cares.  If KLM swaps a 777 for an MD-11 it is not in the news, when US Airways swaps out a mainline  A319 for a US Airways Express EMB-190 no one blinks, but when an Airbus A380 is removed from a route, it is in USA Today, The National Post, picked up by the Associated Press, Reuters and other news outlets.

Why is it news?  Well for starters, the New York/New Jersey Port Authority spent roughly US$180mil to upgrade the facilities at JFK to accommodate the aircraft.  After the massive amount paid to allow the aircraft to fly info JFK, there was substantial fanfare about the introduction and importance of the route and an ad campaign for the A380 service to New York.

What was my speculation way back on the 29th of December 2008? That Emirates would remove the A380 from its New York route, swapping it for a Boeing 777-300ER and that the A380 would be switched to the Toronto route.

Nostradamus I am not, but it is nice to read the news and think, “where have I read that before,” only to remember that you predicted it first.

You can read my post from the 29th of December here :
29/12/2008 – Will The Emirates A380 Make Its Final Departure From JFK By The Summer?

You can read Yesterday’s USA Today article, on the 19th of March, here:
NYC loses flights on world’s largest passenger jet

See if you notice any significant similarities between my prediction 3 months ago and the story as it was released yesterday.

Happy Flying!

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